The more unpopular the government is, the more violent it becomes

Last week we were informed that the government unanimously approved the plan to broaden the fighting in the Gaza Strip, seizing it and, unlike previous [fighting rounds] - occupy these territories. The results of the plan, named “Gideon’s Chariots” are predetermined: death sentence for the remaining hostages, widespread deaths of innocent civilians and children, a complete distraction of the Gazan infrastructure, continuation of the starvation policy, extended removal of [civilian] population and unnecessary death of [Israeli] soldiers. All that without offering a new leadership in the [Gaza] strip- meaning the continuation of Hamas rule. Let’s not get confused, the decision for this operation has nothing to do with questions of security [of either side]. This is how, for example, [Bezalel] Smotrich [Israel’s finance minister] exposed the settlers’ goals by declaring - “from the moment the manoeuvre starts- there will be no folding back from the territories we occupy, not even in exchange for hostages” and that “Gaza will be demolished completely “. Meaning the settlers’ goals are to occupy the [Gaza] strip, demolish and settle it and not returning the hostages and providing security for the people of the region. The meaning of this dystopian vision are horrific war crimes against two million people in Gaza, that even before the “chariots” were on their way - lived (and died) in actual hell.

The decision to [initiate this] operation came about even with extended and prolonged public opposition to continue the war. Recent and consistent surveys show that, around 70% of Israelis are interested in a deal that will bring back all hostages and that will fully end the war. The [public] support on what the government terms the "Decisive Plan" [Tochnit Ha’Hachra’a תכנית ההכרעה] is fading, and currently stands around 20% of the public. These polls show a significant realisation – that the majority of the [government’s] coalition voters are opposed to the government’s policy, which in turn loses its traditional voter base. Netanyahu is well aware of this and still, when giving a speech this week he explicitly said that “we would like to bring back the 59 remaining hostages, but the war has a supreme goal, and that is to defeat our enemies”. Meaning, Netanyahu knowingly decided to publicly ignore the will of majority of the Israeli people.

In addition to the aforementioned disastrous outcomes of continuing the war, such endeavour, and the permanent occupation of the [Gaza] Strip will have astronomical costs. How is the government planning to fund it? You guessed it, the costs will fall on popular [i.e. lower] classes, that are [already] required to pay for the war of the extreme right minority. Only last week, the government, together with the finance ministry and the Histadrut [Israel labour union federation] promoted major pay cuts for the public sector with the manipulative headline “the common carrying of the load” [see comment below]. The move, solidified by legislation in the Knesset, will lead to pay cuts for the public sector, starting from the next salary, at a rate of 3.3% per month until the end of the year. Additionally, In 2026, the cut will be 1.2% per month. This directly affects the income of hundreds of thousands of employees and indirectly impacts most of Israel’s workers. And of course, it greatly damages the public systems themselves, like the health, education and social care sectors which already are suffering from deep budget deficit. [These cuts will] worsen even more the scarce services given, and for which the need is increasing with the continuation of the war. This legislation joins a series of other austerity measures, which normally harm the general public and not the rich in society. [These measure include] raising VAT and increasing the cost of public transportation, which the government makes in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance, that, as usual, does not miss an opportunity to harm the public service. Needless to state that offering alternative and reasonable financing measures, such as increasing the deficit, increasing taxes on capital or taxing the banks, airlines and defence industries that are sweeping huge war- profits at our expense, are not even considered. Not by the government and not by the neoliberal finance ministry. As usual, the economic load of the war is on the backs of working class, which many of them make up the voter base of the government.

In the face of the just and impressive protest of the teaching staff (and the great public support it has received), Smotrich’s response is particularly unbelievable and points to the depth of his disconnection. In a letter sent to the teachers he wrote that “I can’t even imagine that at a time when hundreds of thousands of reserve duty personnel are leaving everything – their homes, families and livelihoods – and give their lives to defend their homeland, those who are educating our children will strike and will damage the war effort because of an argument on the implementation of a temporary budget cuts of a few pay percents” did you get that? Smotrich, the head of a party that according to polls isn’t even passing the election threshold [see comment below] (meaning it doesn’t even represent its voter public), is blaming the workers for his [i.e. Smotrich’s] unwillingness to fund his own choice-war [see comment below], an eternal war that all its purpose is fulfilling wild fantasies of occupation, expulsion and settlement, a war that the huge majority of the [Israeli] public is not even supporting anymore.

So, the settlers’ goals are clear, but how can Netanyahu’s decisions be explained? Why promote such unpopular policies? Or at least, why declare it so openly? After all his political power over the past decade is largely rooted in his rare ability to respond to public sentiment, while reformulating and redesigning it in a way that strengthens him and his coalition. The ability to draw legitimacy from broad popular support, while at the same time promote the particular and sectoral interests for his coalition. How, then, can we explain this dramatic change?

In my opinion, Netanyahu and his partners are increasingly realising that in the reality of post October 7th they lost the popular support, and that they have no real possibility of a democratically winning in the elections without changing the rules of the game. There has always been tension between the populist aspects of government (democratic discourse and receptiveness, however partial, to popular sentiments) and its political project (authoritarianism, Jewish supremacy, annexation, discriminatory, and dismantling of the state). The war exposed this tension in its core, and as the popularity of the government plummets, it tries to cover this tension with increasing violence not only against Gazans, but also against the citizens of the State of Israel, with direct violence, legislation, selective enforcement, terrorism and intimidation. A clear example of this is the government's response to the growing phenomenon of refusal [to serve] among [IDF] reservists; for example, MK Avihai Boaron's (Likud party) bill, which will allow for five years imprisonment for calling on refusal to serve in the reserve’s army.

So, instead of a populist strategy supported by democratic legitimacy, at least allegedly, [the government] promotes a much more fascist discourse, that leans on religious-nationalist justifications blatantly and publicly. Instead of calling for elections, the government continues to promote war at all cost - which allows a state of emergency, promoting the judicial overhaul and the takeover of state and institutional centres of power, in contrast to the public will. Instead of responding to public sentiment, it promotes delegitimisation of Arab candidates and parties, and of the feasibility of Jewish-Arab partnership. The spreading a conspiracy theory against the Balad party [see comment below], the pogrom during the screening of the joint [Israeli-Palestinian] memorial ceremony in Ra'anana [see comment below], promoting the blood libel on the intentional arson of the fires [see comment below], all of which are intended to enable it later – and all signs show this is the government’s intention – to outlaw Arab candidates and parties from participating in the elections. Unlike the opposition, the government understands very well that Jewish-Arab political partnership is the key to its downfall. Whist this is an extremely dangerous development, it also opens up the political field to new possibilities, arrangements and alliances. Unfortunately, the opposition is not currently prepared to take advantage of the democratic potential of this moment. Instead of presenting an alternative to the extreme right, Benny Gantz [leader of second largest opposition party, National Unity] and the Israeli President are supporting the settlements project, Yair Lapid [leader of largest opposition party, Yesh Atid] compares the “extremists on both sides” (i.e. between pogromists in the synagogue and the organisers of the ceremony), [Naftali] Bennett [previous prime minister and likely candidate in future elections] enthusiastically backs the continuation of the war, [Avigdor] Lieberman [leader of third largest opposition party, Yisrael Beiteinu] proposes to revoke the right to vote from those who do not enlist in the IDF [see comment below], and all of them are silent in the face of the war crimes in Gaza and in the face of wage cuts and austerity policies that are destroying society from within. In light of this, there is no doubt: in order to change not only the government, but also its policy – we will have to replace the opposition as well.